Международная безопасность

Brothers Armed: Military Aspects of the Crisis in Ukraine is the latest book from the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow-based think tank focused on military and security issues. Presenting a collection of essays by leading Russian and Ukrainian military, security and political analysts, Brothers Armed charts the history of military reform and progress in Ukraine and Russia from the collapse of the Soviet Union to the 2014 annexation of Crimea.

The 2014 Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) Nuclear Materials Security Index is the second edition of a first-of-its-kind public assessment of nuclear materials security conditions around the world. Developed with the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the NTI Index encourages governments to take actions to reduce risks and to provide assurances about the security of some of the world’s deadliest materials. The NTI Index and its broad framework for nuclear materials security was developed with guidance from an International Panel of Experts from nuclear- and non-nuclear-weapon states and from developed and developing nations, including Argentina , Australia, China, France, India, Japan, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Russia, South Africa, Sweden, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Vietnam – among them a representative from the World Institute for Nuclear Security (WINS) and a former International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) official.

The ICRC is pleased to present its 2014 Emergency Appeals, which describe the situations faced by people affected by armed conflicts and other situations of violence, the primary objectives of the ICRC’s field delegations and missions in some 80 countries around the world and the corresponding budgetary requirements. The Emergency Appeals set out the needs as identified at the time of writing in late October 2013.

In ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror, American journalist Michael Weiss and Syrian analyst Hassan Hassan explain how these violent extremists evolved from a nearly defeated Iraqi insurgent group into a jihadi army of international volunteers who behead Western hostages in slickly produced videos and have conquered territory equal to the size of Great Britain. Political and military maneuvering by the United States, Iraq, Iran, and Syria have all fueled ISIS’s astonishing and explosive expansion. Drawing on original interviews with former US military officials and current ISIS fighters, the authors also reveal the internecine struggles within the movement itself, as well as ISIS’s bloody hatred of Shiite Muslims, which is generating another sectarian war in the region. Just like the one the US thought it had stopped in 2011 in Iraq. Past is prologue and America’s legacy in the Middle East is sowing a new generation of terror.

In the run-up to the 52nd edition of the Munich Security Conference (12 to 14 February 2016) the MSC is releasing its second Munich Security Report (MSR) featuring important trends and issues in international security. Last year’s edition was downloaded more than 25,000 times. Entitled "Boundless Crises, Reckless Spoilers, Helpless Guardians," the new MSR compiles data, analyses and maps which illuminate major developments and critical challenges to international security. The MSR serves as a conversation starter for the 52nd Munich Security Conference (MSC) and as a background reading for MSC participants, but is also made available to security professionals and the interested public. Among the key topics of this year's edition are the crisis of the European security order, the war in Syria and the global activities of jihadist terrorist groups. Moreover, the report sheds light on the refugee crisis and the security implications of global climate and health policies. The report was prepared in cooperation with numerous renowned partners, including Chatham House, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), IHS Jane's, UNHCR and the Mercator Institute for China Studies.

On 26 January 2015, the Munich Security Conference (MSC) has published the first Munich Security Report (MSR), an annual digest on critical questions and important trends in the field of international security policy. This year's inaugural edition is called "Collapsing Order, Reluctant Guardians?" In addition to providing short summaries of key issues, the report features a selection of some of the most insightful analyses, charts, and maps that can help illuminate crucial challenges in the realm of international security. The report serves as a conversation starter for the debates at the Munich Security Conference and background reading for MSC participants, but also represents a contribution to the security-policy debate and addresses the interested public. Topics of this year's report include different aspects and consequences of the Ukraine crisis, a survey of recent developments in jihadist extremism, new challenges such as hybrid warfare, and the global refugee crisis.

13 years after the tragic events of 9/11, al-Qa‘ida can count on as many regional nodes as never before as well as on a still significant influence over the wider jihadi galaxy, thus showing the strenght of its message and of its modus operandi. However, the past few years were marked by the surge of a number of factions that, while sharing several features with the group founded by Osama bin Laden, developed new and often competing political views. Such new actors pose a threat to al-Qa‘ida’s supremacy over the whole jihadi community. In this context, the e-book "New (and old) patterns of jihadism: al-Qa'ida, the Islamic State and beyond" will address the following questions: how did the Islamic State emerge in Iraq and Syria? How serious is the challenge it poses to the international community and to al-Qa‘ida? What impact is to be expected on the Tunisian and Libyan Ansar al-Shariah branches operating throughout North Africa and beyond? Can Sinai become the next frontier of jihadism, and how is it affected by instability in Libya and Palestine? Who are the European jihadists fighting in Syria and Iraq? How do security agencies perceive the threat of transnational extremist networks, and which strategies do they implement to face them?

The 2014 Nuclear Threat Initiative Nuclear Materials Security Index is the second edition of a unique public assessment of nuclear materials security conditions around the world. Developed with the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the NTI Index was created to assess the security of nuclear materials around the world and to encourage governments to take actions and provide assurances about the security of the world’s deadliest materials. It has sparked international discussions about priorities required to strengthen security. The NTI Index draws on NTI’s nuclear expertise, the EIU’s experience in constructing indices, and the reach of the EIU’s global network of hundreds of analysts and contributors. NTI—together with an international panel of nuclear security experts and a number of technical advisors—developed the framework and priorities that define effective nuclear materials security conditions. The EIU was responsible for developing the analytic model and gathering the data.

In a year of renewed interest in the OSCE, the 20th edition of the OSCE Yearbook contains analyses, descriptions and reports by experts, insiders and decision-makers on the world's largest regional security organization, its work and participating States. A special focus section considers the Helsinki +40 Process against the background of the crisis in Ukraine. Highlights include former Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov on the OSCE's ongoing relevance, and OSCE Secretary General Lamberto Zannier on the Organization as a regional arrangement under the UN Charter. Steven Pifer also discusses recent events in US-Russia relations. The participating States in the spotlight this year are Turkmenistan, newcomer Mongolia, and the UK, in the context of the referendum on Scottish independence. The section on conflict prevention and dispute settlement is largely dedicated to the Ukraine crisis. Here, renowned experts deal with the challenges and opportunities presented by the OSCE's Special Monitoring Mission; analyse the strategic struggle between Russia and Ukraine; consider Russia's motivations; and outline the development of Ukrainian civil society. Other contributions are dedicated to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, election observation, conventional arms control against the backdrop of the Ukraine crisis, and the OSCE Mediterranean Partnership four years after the "Arab Spring."

Although some of today's armed conflicts seem unsolvable, the fact is that in the last three decades, four out of five of the armed conflicts have concluded with a peace agreement at a negotiating table, and not with the military victory of one of the parties. Almost half of today's conflicts, however, are still active, and pose a serious challenge to peace diplomacy which seeks to reduce the levels of violence and conduct parties to the path of negotiations. This book, which is based on the observation of a large number of negotiations and on the author's own experience, emphasizes those methodologies that have proven to be most useful in terms of ensuring the smooth running of a peace process, and which may help overcome the numerous crises that may be encountered along the way.